If ever there were a time for Jon Niese to channel his inner Jerry Koosman — or, maybe Sid Fernandez, if we’re being less overheated — it was Thursday afternoon against the Cardinals. Watching Niese was like one giant tease for Mets fans, who must’ve turned off the TV wondering why he can’t flatten hitters like that all the time.
Niese didn’t just make the Cardinals look bad in a 5-2 victory, he outpitched Adam Wainwright, which is saying something. The left-hander ended the Mets’ six-game losing streak, delivering to this franchise a much-needed Band-Aid. Still, let’s be truthful, that’s all it was.
Niese’s masterpiece aside, the Mets have been careening toward disaster for most of May and are now on pace for 100 losses. No one should be surprised; this roster has been badly flawed from the outset. Still, it’s disturbing how quickly the season has unraveled, leaving in its wake the sense that it’s hopeless from here to September.
So who’s to blame? Terry Collins made himself an easy target last week, creating an adversarial relationship with the public. The manager quickly walked back his comments, apologizing for saying, “I don’t answer to fans.” Of course Collins doesn’t. But it’s hard to repair the damage once a wedge has been placed between the players and the ticket buyers. It’s how managers get themselves fired.
Collins should’ve known better than to give the Wilpons an opening like that. No matter what ownership says to the contrary, they’ll need a fall guy if the Mets are doomed to play .400 ball the rest of the summer. What better candidate than someone who rips the saps who still actually pay to see the Hands free access?
But that’s not saying Collins deserves to be canned. Given a pass for last week’s misstep, he’s had a better year than most of his remarkably awful lineup. There’s plenty of talk, generated mostly by rogue fans, about Wally Backman arriving mid-summer to shake things up. Admittedly, it’s a seductive story line: Backman and his tightly wound clock, is just the medicine these sorry Mets need. Right?
Not really. Backman would face the same obstacles that currently handcuff Collins: a non-productive outfield, a bullpen that ranked last in the majors in almost category in May, not to mention the regression of key players such as Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, Daniel Murphy and even Niese.
Somehow, the Mets are worse this year despite adding Matt Harvey, who might be the best pitcher in baseball. This summer was supposed to be a springboard to the 2014 renaissance — if not a wild-card run, at least a dance on the fringes of respectability.
But general manager Sandy Alderson, a Dartmouth College graduate, chose to populate his bullpen with aging relievers, one of whom, Scott Atchison, has already broken down. The wear and tear on the Mets’ relief corps will only become more pronounced, too, especially if Niese can’t sustain the fastball he showed the Cardinals and Dillon Gee, who admits he’s “lost” on the mound, doesn’t find his equilibrium. And then there’s Harvey and his innings.
At 24, the Mets’ boy-ace is already a candidate for the Verducci Effect, having increased his workload by 331∕3 innings from 2011-12. The formula, while admittedly imperfect, nevertheless issues a warning to any under-25-year-old pitcher whose workload increases by more than 30 innings from one season to the next.
The Mets would be smart to protect Harvey — only, with what? LaTroy Hawkins? Robert Carson? Eventually, the fans will be treated to Zack Wheeler and while the Harvey-Wheeler duo will tap into a deep well of nostalgia among the franchise’s historians — think: a young Seaver-Koosman — Alderson’s bullpen will keep breaking their hearts. At least until the Mets can score more runs.
No one could’ve predicted how fast Davis would decelerate this season. One scout flatly asked, “What’s he even doing on that roster?” To slightly lesser degrees, Duda and Ruben Tejada have worked their way down the ladder of success. Although Murphy finally got hot recently, ownership was nevertheless desperate enough to sign Rick Ankiel, a decision that was met with derision by rival talent evaluators.
Alderson’s response, of course, is to point to similar gambles that have worked out for the Yankees, specifically with Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay. But GM Brian Cashman has had a much higher percentage than Alderson in picking the right horse. Overbay and Wells are only his most recent success stories; the list goes on to include Eric Chavez and Russell Martin and Raul Ibanez, among others.
To be fair, the difference between Cashman and Alderson is money. One man has it at his disposal, the other is working with food stamps, at the mercy of his penniless bosses. That’s the last remaining hope for Alderson, that the Wilpons will fatten the payroll to $100 million next year after John Santana and Jason Bay are finally off the books. That’s a $52 million windfall.
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